Thursday, July 13, 2006
Beazley ought to have a sinking feeling.
The May and June employment reports appear to have saved the Govt’s Workchoices bacon – certainly smirky pete was looking like the cat that got the cream when doing the post employment gloat on Thursday afternoon. In the previous two months, 99.7k jobs have been added: 72.5k full time jobs (+1%), and 27.2k part time jobs (+0.9%). The unemployment rate is 4.9%, on both trend and seasonally adjusted estimes, and vacancy data points to ongoing employment gains.
The Industrial relations laws had the potential to be the undoing of the government. Had the economy been headed into a downswing, freer ability to sack employees might’ve been a disaster. As it stands, I expect that the unemployment rate will be 4.5% before the 2007 election, and that real wages growth will be about 4%y/y. The Govt is not yet willing to attribute the gains to workchioces – for fear that the economy may turn, and that the downturn may be blamed on the policy, however we at merge-right need not be so coy.
Howard will beat Beazley in 2007. Unemployment will be at 30yr lows (prob below 4.5%), wages growth will be 4%y/y, and the Liberal campaign will be that unemployment is always higher under a labour govt – when the unions kick outsiders out of jobs, to the benefit of their members (who will be 15% of the private sector labour force by this time). By the 2010 election, it will be too late for a third round of roll-back.
Bye bye Beazley.
Posted by Matt Johnson at 11:01 PM